Introduction: Stock Market
welcome you all I hope you all are doing good my name is Anush Mukashi and welcome to all of you in today’s latest news so let’s start today’s latest news with world economy first news In the World Economy section is about China, so let’s talk about China, their GDP numbers have come, so you can also see a chart here, this is the chart of quarterly GDP year on year change and their which is of q1 2024.
The number that has come is bigger than 5.3 on viva basis and this number is seen as meaning that it has beaten the expectation and here a manufacturing led revival is being seen. Now this number that has come is 5.3 or now. Why is the expectation being said, then if there was a poll of the readers then according to them the set number was really at 4. 6 and considering that,
now an average number has come out of this,
now which is industrial production by dividing it one by one, if we understand it then which is industrial production. So, it has increased by 6.1 on a neutral basis while the prices of industrial producers have declined by 2.7.
Continued one day pressure is being seen here and after this the fixed asset investment is so. Wawa has increased by 4 a half on Wawa led by increase in manufacturers which is being seen in China. Basically, an offset of the property crisis that is going on in China is being seen here, which is retail sales, so over the quarters at 4.7. But what is the overall period, so they have been sluggish, it is being said here that where overall, if we look at a theme here, why are they big, then exports and cups, which has happened for the new energy, then this is It is being said?
here that now overall the target GDP of China
is that the target growth is for the GDP which is at 5 per and they have kept it the same, but this means what has been achieved in the past. If we remain in 3rd and 4th quarter but this number is seen to be the lowest figure in the decades, now let’s see what the plans of China are, how will their growth revive, go ahead, now we move towards our Indian economy section.
SO, in the Indian Economy section
the first news is about India’s electronics exports. India’s exports are bigger than 23.6 billion. Enough 20 and this is the number that has come. The number has come to 29.12 billion dollars. So, you can see another chart here. If the total exports have been 29.
12 billion dollars, then India has actually exported more than half a billion dollars every month in FY 24 and the growth is also quite robust and in the month of March, exports have reached 3.5 billion dollars. Now, which are the top five markets where India has exported, that includes US, UAE, Netherlands, UK and Italy.
Apart from this, there are some new markets too where it has ventured and taken entry.
Now let’s talk about the next news.
Next news is about India’s GDP forecast, which has been increased by IMF by 30 points to 6.8 per FVA 25. Now this forecast has increased. This is this, this is an update in their World Economic Outlook report.
In their World Economic Outlook report, as an update, they have given this growth projection. So, India’s growth forecast has been increased by 30 basis points. Now what are its regions? So given the reason, the domestic demand of India is very high, maybe this is their expectation, now this number of 6.8, so this number is slightly lower as compared to what the government projections are, the government projection is approx. for R7.
The real GDP number,
the real GDP growth number for India was as high as the F26 number. If we look at the F26 growth projection by the IMF itself, it is at 6 and half and there also they have given the same reasons that domestic consumption is increasing. Expecting 6 A Half Per Growth in A 26 Now Can There Be Headwinds Also So Can Head Winds Also Factored in So Yes, They Are Also Saying There Can Be Some Headwinds Also Like Crude Oil Price If Increases Then Some Butt Nex Coming to the supply chain, if there are some disruptions, then they
can also have an impact here, but the overall domestic demand means that there can be a higher demand there, a higher growth can come from there, this is what they say here. Now, if we understand here which agency is not because multiple agencies are giving multiple numbers, then which agency has kept what is the expected number, then again you can see a table, here the number of IMF is the revised number.
World Bank is at 6.8,
again, this number has been increased from 6.4 to 6.6, Fitch and Even, ADB, Asian Development Bank, their expected E is at 7, Brocks and Citi Bank is expecting again at 6.8, approx GDP growth for India for F 25 Now overall, if we look here, the broad range we come to is that India’s real GDP growth can remain between 6.5 6 a half to 7 per.
Now question,
this also comes, many questions. These also come in the form of whether these numbers are important or do these numbers also matter. What does it mean that these numbers give us a broad direction? We mean that these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt. But for a broad direction the numbers are given.
Numbers are very useful like if we use these numbers where can we use them, we can plan it in means we can use these numbers in our financial planning that how much SIP do I have to do, if I get that much corpus by that time. If I want, then I also want the expected return. So, in these calculations, we can use these numbers.
We should use these numbers as a form of identification. This is what I think. Now let us move towards our stock specific section. So, stock specific section. In this we will read the first news about ICS Lombard, their Q4 results have come and the gross domestic premium income which is premium income has increased by 177.
8% on YoY basis while the average growth of the industry is at 12.8%. So, they have outpaced the industry growth. If we talk about the combined ratio, then what is the combined ratio, which is the loss ratio, which is the claims plus which is the expenses, then if we combine it and see it as a percentage of premium, then in short, this combined ratio is calculated like this, then their combined ratio is 33.
so not on underwriting basis,
it is in losses but considering the investment income generated by the insurance company, then on that basis, on net basis, they generate profit, but combined ratio should be 1003. On underwriting basis, it shows that they are making losses so combined ratio which is at 103.3 per FVA 24 so it has improved after Covid but overall industry which is combined ratio which is at 103.
3 in the general insurance base so the same remains the same as the PAT amount is bigger by 10.9 on Wawa basis plus their market share stands at 8.6 per for overall F24. If we talk about some key segments then the motor segment which is If it is their segment then the premium rate is high there, it has not been announced till now but despite that the loss ratio is seen to be moderate here from 72 to 65.
But apart from that their segment of health insurance mostly they operate in a group segment group health insurance but their retail agency channel is also quite big by 23 in overall and 24 then the most important number which is Here, which is the expense management ratio number, so here there is a regulatory cap which should be only up to 30, especially in the non-life general space and theirs has come below 30 based on their calculation so pretty moderate to. Good set of numbers from IC Then
let’s talk about next news
Next news is about Angel One, so their results have also come Overall their total income is big by 28 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis which is pat So that is also bigger at 31 on quarter-on-quarter basis. Now why is it so big? So again, you can see a table here, which is the client acquisition metrics, then there is the total client base, so sector sector, it is bigger than 14.3.
The share which is gross client acquisition has increased by 17.2 basis points, the share in India demat account has increased by 72 basis points and the current share which is there is 14.7 basis points. If we look at the transaction matrix here, if you can see the number of orders, this number of orders is bigger than 34.5 and the number of orders in Q4 itself is Rs 471 million.
Now if we see the split of this too,
then in another table here you can see the number of orders. So, the growth that has come in the number of orders is 34.5, which means it is on total basis. You can see its split below that there has been a growth of 35.5 in endo and growth in cash has come by 37.
And This is offset by commodity growth which is 2.7 so flat growth has come so drivers of orders rf endo and cash segment so overall decent set of numbers from angel one now it has to be seen how the market reacts to this then the next news is about Ambuja Regarding cements, when Adani had invested in Ambuja Cements, when Adani had basically acquired Aja Cements, he had subscribed some equity there, so due to this, the figure of Rs. 00 crore is so over the period.
And the tranches have been effused into Ambuja Cement and this last transaction was worth Rs 89 crores and the total that has been generated now is Rs. 00 crores in the over period and the total stake that the company has with this is huge. From 3.6 per cent to 70.3 per cent, now the total amount of Rs 20,000 crore will be used,
so overall
there is an aim of the capacity expansion plan in respect of which it can be utilized there which is the current capacity expansion plan. The capacity is really 70 MTP and they have to double it by 28 in the next I think four years so if they double in four years then they can utilize these funds as capex there, there is an indication here so this was it I hope you must have liked today’s latest news. For more such Blog, stay tuned to our channel. Do not forget to share a. See you in the next blog. Thank you so much.
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